An August election?
I noticed yesterday that some commentators were speculating on an early election: either called immediately after the Budget, or in early August.
Frankly, in my view, a pre-October election is highly unlikely.
If an election was held today, Rudd would win in a landslide. Howard knows it. Rudd knows it. Everyone knows it.
It will be no different next weekend, or the weekend after, or indeed (in all likelihood) for any weekend this side of September. No budget bounce can knock eight or ten per cent off the polls. (Indeed, as I have posted before, the very notion of a post-Budget poll bounce is suspect).
Short of standout events — such as Rudd being caught in a highly compromising position or the outbreak of World War III — underlying population-wide perceptions and polling intentions move slowly: typically at less than one per cent per month (once the noise and volatility is filtered out).
If Howard wants to win the next election, something which I think is beyond doubt, he needs time. He needs time for Rudd to make missteps. He needs time to demonise Rudd and his policies. He needs time for the underlying good perceptions about Rudd to be muddied. It is not a guaranteed strategy for winning, but it is Howard’s best bet.
In summary: Howard is not suicidal. He will want to set the election at a time when he thinks he will win it. At the moment, that is unlikely to be any time soon. My money, therefore, is on a late election between October and December.