Oz Politics

ACNielsen and Newspoll both released opinion polls yesterday. The head line two-party preferred results were:

• ACNielsen — 52 to 48 per cent in Labor’s favor (down two for Labor)
• Newspoll — 51 to 49 per cent in Labor’s favor (up two for Labor)

But it should be noted if ACNielsen’s non-Coalition-non-Labor votes were distributed on the same basis as Newspoll’s (that is to say, as they were at the last Federal election), the ACNielsen result would have been 50.3 per cent in the Coalition’s favour.

The Primary votes were as follows:

• Coalition — 43 per cent (ACNielsen up 3) and 42 per cent (Newspoll down 2)
• Labor —; 38 per cent (ACNielsen down 3) and 41 per cent (Newspoll up 2)
• Greens — 11 per cent (ACNielsen up 1) and 7 per cent (Newspoll up 2)
• Other — 9 per cent (ACNielsen up 1) and 10 per cent (Newspoll down 1)
• Australian Democrats — 3 per cent (ACNielsen up 1)
• Independents — 3 per cent (ACNielsen down 1)
• One Nation – 1 per cent (ACNielsen steady)
• Other — 2 per cent (ACNielsen up 1)

While there appears to be agreement on the Coalition vote, there is disagreement on the primary vote for Labor and the Greens.

Beazley is not doing as well as Howard in the attitudinal polling:

With more than 10,000 observations, the aggregated monthly poll for July does not look good for John Howard.

The latest graphs are here.